Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Friday, November 6, 2009
F&M Turf
Good god, this race is wide open. There's not a single horse here I feel like I can cross out.
I also realize how little I like blogging, so here are my picks for the rest of the day. I'm tired; I have a head ache, so I'm out.
F&M Turf: 4-6-2-5
F&M Sprint: 9-7-4-6
Ladies Classic: 8-1-7-6 (best bet of the day: trifecta 8/1,7/ALL)
I also realize how little I like blogging, so here are my picks for the rest of the day. I'm tired; I have a head ache, so I'm out.
F&M Turf: 4-6-2-5
F&M Sprint: 9-7-4-6
Ladies Classic: 8-1-7-6 (best bet of the day: trifecta 8/1,7/ALL)
I could care less about juvenile races, but...
...Robby Albarado showed why he's an underrated jockey. He rated Tapitsfly perfectly around both turns and when he let her go, she went. Great ride and a great conditioning job by Dale Romans.
What a race
Mastery did not take to the Pro Ride and seemed to have nothing to give in the stretch. As expected, the pace failed, but it was European Man of Iron who came through on the inside and nosed nine-year-old Cloudy's Night. My longshot, Gangbuster, was a distant fourth.
I don't feel that this race deserves any more commentary, so I'm done.
Next up, the Juvenile Filly's Turf. I don't handicap juvenile races, but I'll comment after the race.
I don't feel that this race deserves any more commentary, so I'm done.
Next up, the Juvenile Filly's Turf. I don't handicap juvenile races, but I'll comment after the race.
Breeders' Cup Marathon
Despite having quite possibly the most overwhelming favorite on the first day of the Breeders' Cup, the Marathon could turn into a very interesting race. There's little pace here, and I expect Black Astor and Man of Iron to contest the early pace. If Black Astor feels aggressive, Nite Light has shown a propensity to let out a notch to stay in front, which doomed him to long-shot Eldaafer in the Brooklyn Handicap in June. I don't expect this to happen. Expect a half mile in the 51 and 3/5-range.
The long-shot that deserves a look is Gangbuster. His recent form has been spotty, and he has noy won since April, but he is bred to go the distance and won the last time Kent Desourmeaux rode him for his brother Keith. He's the only horse in the field to have tried 14 furlongs, and while he disappointed, he did win against a stronger field at 13 furlongs widening at the end. Any time you have a race at a distance like this and have a horse who has had success at the distance, it's worth a look. He could benefit coming mid-pack off a moderate pace.
The clear class of the field is Mastery. He's a British Classic winner, taking the St. Leger last out for the Sheik. He ran a close-up fourth in his only start on a synthetic surface in England and he showed a desire to go on for more. He has finished in the money in his last five starts, all grouped stakes in England, France or Italy, at distances from 11 furlongs to 16 furlongs. The only question is how he handles the Pro Ride surface at Santa Anita, but considering Pro Ride runs very similar to a turf course, I don't see this being much of a concern. Expect Mastery to stay off the pace near the back-half of the field and Frankie Dettori to send him around the 3/8th poll and watch him pull away while Father Time and Gangbuster overtake the out-classed pace and battle for place money.
Projected order of finish: 6-10-4-5
The long-shot that deserves a look is Gangbuster. His recent form has been spotty, and he has noy won since April, but he is bred to go the distance and won the last time Kent Desourmeaux rode him for his brother Keith. He's the only horse in the field to have tried 14 furlongs, and while he disappointed, he did win against a stronger field at 13 furlongs widening at the end. Any time you have a race at a distance like this and have a horse who has had success at the distance, it's worth a look. He could benefit coming mid-pack off a moderate pace.
The clear class of the field is Mastery. He's a British Classic winner, taking the St. Leger last out for the Sheik. He ran a close-up fourth in his only start on a synthetic surface in England and he showed a desire to go on for more. He has finished in the money in his last five starts, all grouped stakes in England, France or Italy, at distances from 11 furlongs to 16 furlongs. The only question is how he handles the Pro Ride surface at Santa Anita, but considering Pro Ride runs very similar to a turf course, I don't see this being much of a concern. Expect Mastery to stay off the pace near the back-half of the field and Frankie Dettori to send him around the 3/8th poll and watch him pull away while Father Time and Gangbuster overtake the out-classed pace and battle for place money.
Projected order of finish: 6-10-4-5
Friday's betting selections
Analysis for each race as well as how I came to my selections will be available 20-25 minutes prior to post time, but here are my betting selections for Friday.
I am not responsible for any actions taken by anyone on my advice. These selections are hypothetical wagers and should be considered as such. I have limited myself to $100 for Friday and $150 for Saturday.
Race 3:
$1 ex 6/1,2,3,4,5,7,8,9 ($8 total)
$1 ex box 6,10 ($2 total)
Race 6
$1 Late Pick 3: ALL/9/1,7,8 ($24 total)
$1 Late Pick 3: 1,2,4,5,6/7,9/1,7,8 ($30 total)
Race 7
$1ex 7,9/4,6,7,9 ($6 total)
Race 8
$1 tri 8/1,7/all ($12 total)
total - $82
I am not responsible for any actions taken by anyone on my advice. These selections are hypothetical wagers and should be considered as such. I have limited myself to $100 for Friday and $150 for Saturday.
Race 3:
$1 ex 6/1,2,3,4,5,7,8,9 ($8 total)
$1 ex box 6,10 ($2 total)
Race 6
$1 Late Pick 3: ALL/9/1,7,8 ($24 total)
$1 Late Pick 3: 1,2,4,5,6/7,9/1,7,8 ($30 total)
Race 7
$1ex 7,9/4,6,7,9 ($6 total)
Race 8
$1 tri 8/1,7/all ($12 total)
total - $82
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Blogging the Breeders' Cup
I will be live-blogging the Breeders' Cup live from my 50-inch plasma television. Should be fun.
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